Key releases

2026. 5. 8. 오후 4:22:53

The United States of America

USD is weakening against EUR, GBP, and JPY.

Investor focus is on April labor market data: unemployment remained steady at 4.3%, meeting expectations, but nonfarm payrolls increased by 115.0K, exceeding forecasts of 65.0K, while average hourly earnings grew by 0.2% against the projected 0.3%. Thus, the sector demonstrates resilience despite the energy crisis, significantly increasing the likelihood that the US Fed will maintain interest rates at least until the end of this year. Meanwhile, investors are disappointed by another escalation in the US-Iranian conflict, where the parties exchanged attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, damaging port infrastructure and vessels, which will negatively impact the diplomatic settlement process. Later, President Donald Trump attempted to calm markets, stating that consultations would continue and the ceasefire would remain in effect. Meanwhile, traders are concerned by the escalation of the economic confrontation between the US and the Eurozone: on Thursday, the White House chief announced a new increase in export tariffs, which currently average 15.0%, as the Eurozone, in his opinion, is not fulfilling the terms of the already concluded deal. Implementation is proceeding slowly, especially after the Supreme Court ruled that the White House’s imposition of some duties was illegal. The deadline for ratification of the agreement expires on July 4, after which the foreign trade crisis could intensify again.

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening against JPY and USD but weakening against GBP.

In March, German industrial production contracted by 0.7% instead of the expected 0.4% growth amid rising energy prices and logistical instability. However, exports increased by 0.5%, while experts expected a 1.7% decrease, and imports fell by 5.1% compared to estimates of 0.8%, resulting in the trade balance surplus decreasing from 19.5B euros to 14.3B euros. The US remains the largest importer of German goods, with purchases estimated at 11.2B euros, while China supplies the most goods, totaling 15.6B euros. Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel pointed to a growing share of Eurozone companies planning to raise prices for goods and services soon despite subdued demand, while household inflation expectations are strengthening. According to the official, if the Middle East crisis continues, the regulator may shift to “hawkish” rhetoric to combat rising prices.

United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against JPY, USD, and EUR.

In April, the Halifax House Price Index decreased by 0.1% MoM against forecasts of no change, and adjusted from 0.8% to 0.4% YoY, exceeding expert expectations. Negative dynamics have been developing for the second consecutive month, driven by falling demand due to the worsening economic situation amid the US-Iranian confrontation. Meanwhile, local government elections have concluded, in which, according to preliminary data, the ruling Labour Party lost, potentially leading to Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation. Starmer states he has no intention of leaving his post.

Japan

JPY is strengthening against USD but weakening against EUR and GBP.

Investors are evaluating the April Services PMI, which fell from 53.4 points to 51.0 points, while experts expected 51.2 points, resulting in the Composite PMI decreasing from 53.0 points to 52.2 points. Thus, the sector, which until now has been providing significant support to the economy, slowed to an 11-month low under pressure from a decrease in new orders and rising energy prices. According to Reuters sources, the government conducted currency interventions during the holidays from May 1 to May 6, as liquidity in the financial market is quite low during this time. It is estimated that policymakers spent an additional 5.0T yen (about 32.0B dollars) to stabilize the national currency.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against USD and JPY but shows mixed dynamics against GBP and EUR.

On Monday at 03:30 (GMT+2), housing market data for March is due: according to preliminary estimates, building approvals for private houses will grow by 0.9%, but the total volume may decrease by 10.5%. The implementation of this forecast would confirm increasing pressure on the construction sector and increase the likelihood of a slowdown in the national economy, which could prevent monetary policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Oil

Oil prices are correcting downward after yesterday’s increase caused by the escalation of the US-Iranian conflict. As a reminder, the parties exchanged attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in damage to port infrastructure. However, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seized the tanker Ocean Koi, which was sailing without permission from Tehran. Experts suggest the incident could negatively affect the diplomatic settlement process. Meanwhile, operations at Libya’s largest active refinery, Zawiya, were suspended due to nearby hostilities, creating a market deficit of 120.0K barrels of oil per day. Thus, despite the current decline, fundamental factors for oil price growth remain.

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