GBP/USD: growth potential of the pair remains

2026. 11. 10. 오후 12:14:08

Current trend

In the middle of last month, the GBP/USD pair resumed active growth and last week reached a three-month high around 1.3500 against the first monetary policy tightening by the Bank of England in the last three years.

Recall that the regulator raised the interest rate from 3.75% to 4.00%, and the head of the department, Andrew Bailey, warned investors that a new increase in interest rates is more than likely if high energy prices observed recently continue, which is quite possible even in the event of a rapid de-escalation of tensions in the Persian Gulf region. These comments provided significant support to the pound, but after the publication of strong statistics from the US, the price corrected downwards significantly. Unemployment decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, and nonfarm payrolls amounted to 165.0K, more than both forecasts of 65.0K and September’s 60.0K, while the average hourly wage increased from 0.3% to 0.4%. These data confirmed the stability of the labor market and increased the probability of a new tightening of monetary policy by the US Fed in December, which, according to information from the FedWatch Tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), is currently estimated at 82.2%.

Currently, the price has again restored lost positions against October data on retail sales from the British Retail Consortium (BRC). Their volume increased from 1.0% to 1.1%, less than preliminary estimates of 1.2%, with food sales increasing by 3.2%, and non-food goods remaining at the previous level. Experts note that, considering high inflation and the caution of consumers striving to save funds yesterday, Black Friday, the growth rates of sales remain quite confident, which confirms the stable state of the national economy. Local support for the currency is also provided by new statements by Bailey, who recently called on the government to use any opportunities to expand trade and access to markets, supporting the intention of Prime Minister Andy Burnham to establish new economic links with the EU, largely severed after Brexit.

In general, the potential for further growth of the GBP/USD pair in the medium term remains.

Support and resistance

The trading instrument is moving within a wide sideways range of 1.3183–1.3671 (Murrey [0/8]–[8/8]) formed at the end of last year, and is currently approaching the upper line of the Bollinger Bands at 1.3488 (Murrey [5/8]), consolidation above which will allow it to reach targets of 1.3671 (Murrey [8/8]), 1.3793 (Murrey [+2/8]). However, in case of a breakdown of the 1.3305 level (Murrey [2/8]), a decline to the area of 1.3183 (Murrey [0/8]), 1.3061 (Murrey [–2/8]), and 1.2939 (Murrey [2/8], W1) is expected.

Technical indicators maintain a buy signal: the Bollinger Bands are turning upwards, the MACD histogram is increasing in the positive zone, and Stochastic is also trying to turn upwards.

Resistance levels: 1.3488, 1.3671, 1.3793.

Support levels: 1.3305, 1.3183, 1.3061, 1.2939.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the 1.3488 level with the targets at 1.3671, 1.3793, and stop loss 1.3400. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Short positions can be opened below the 1.3305 level with the targets at 1.3183, 1.3061, 1.2939 and stop loss 1.3380.

시나리오

타임프레임	Weekly
추천	BUY STOP
진입 지점	1.3488
Take Profit	1.3671, 1.3793
Stop Loss	1.3400
지지선	1.2939, 1.3061, 1.3183, 1.3305, 1.3488, 1.3671, 1.3793

대체 시나리오

추천	SELL STOP
진입 지점	1.3305
Take Profit	1.3183, 1.3061, 1.2939
Stop Loss	1.3380
Stop Loss	1.2939, 1.3061, 1.3183, 1.3305, 1.3488, 1.3671, 1.3793