AUD/USD: the Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee doubted that inflationary factors are transitory

၂၀၂၆၊ ဇွန် ၂၃ နေ့လယ် ၁၃:၀၉:၃၂

Current trend

The AUD/USD pair has been declining for the sixth consecutive week, testing 0.6958 (Murrey [2/8]) around three-month lows, despite positive macroeconomic statistics from Australia.

Thus, the June manufacturing PMI rose from 50.7 points to 51.2 points, and the services PMI grew from 48.7 points to 49.9 points, approaching the border of the positive zone, confirming the stability of the economy in the current crisis conditions. Against this background, the publication of May inflation data on Wednesday at 03:30 (GMT+2) may be of decisive importance for further actions of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): the weighted average consumer price index is expected to increase from 4.2% to 4.3%, allowing the RBA to raise interest rates, leading to the Australian dollar’s strengthening. The current negative dynamics are developing under the influence of the results of the US Fed meeting last week, when the regulator unanimously kept the interest rate in the range of 3.50–3.75%, with nine out of nineteen members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) suggesting an increase in the indicator this year against persistent inflationary pressure supported by the energy crisis and the increase in US trade tariffs. At his first press conference, the head of the regulator, Kevin Warsh, emphasized the commitment of policymakers to returning inflation to the target of 2.0% since price growth in recent months has accelerated due to the increase in the cost of hydrocarbons. According to information from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool, traders changed their assessment of the probability of monetary policy tightening in December from 61.0% to 88.0%, Deutsche Bank analysts expect two interest rate increases, in September and December, and Bank of America Corp experts expect three, in September, October, and December, resulting in the indicator reaching the range of 4.25–4.50%. Today, the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee stated that he doubted that the factors leading to price growth are temporary, also supporting the “hawkish” market sentiment. Thus, the general sentiment of the regulator exerts a decisive influence on investors, providing additional demand for the American dollar.

Support and resistance

The trading instrument is testing the support area of 0.6958–0.6930 (Murrey [2/8], 50.0% Fibonacci retracement), consolidation below it will allow it to decline downwards to the area of 0.6835 (Murrey [0/8]) and 0.6713 (Murrey [–2/8], 38.2% Fibonacci retracement); however, in case of overcoming the middle line of Bollinger bands 0.7080 (Murrey [4/8]), a resumption of the upward dynamics towards 0.7202 (Murrey [6/8]) and 0.7263 (Murrey [7/8]) is expected.

Technical indicators reflect the possibility of a further decline downwards: Bollinger bands are turning downwards, the MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone, and Stochastic has reached the oversold zone, not excluding a limited correction.

Resistance levels: 0.7080, 0.7202, 0.7263.

Support levels: 0.6930, 0.6835, 0.6713.

Trading tips

Short positions can be considered below 0.6930 with the targets at 0.6835, 0.6713, and stop loss 0.6990. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Long positions can be considered above 0.7080, with the targets at 0.7202, 0.7263 and stop loss 0.7020.

အခြေအနေ

အချိန်ကာလ	Weekly
အကြံပြုချက်များ	SELL STOP
ဝင်ရောက်ရန်နေရာ	0.6925
Take Profit	0.6835, 0.6713
Stop Loss	0.6990
ဝန်ဆောင်မှုအဆင့်များ	0.6713, 0.6835, 0.6930, 0.7080, 0.7202, 0.7263

အခြား အြခေအနေ

အကြံပြုချက်များ	BUY STOP
ဝင်ရောက်ရန်နေရာ	0.7085
Take Profit	0.7202, 0.7263
Stop Loss	0.7020
Stop Loss	0.7080, 0.7202, 0.7263