NZD/USD: price is around four-month lows

၂၀၂၆၊ ဇွန် ၂၃ နေ့လယ် ၁၃:၂၄:၅၅

Current trend

The NZD/USD pair has been declining since the beginning of June and is now at 0.5676 (Murrey [1/8]) around four-month lows: the US currency is strengthening against the growing probability of the tightening of the US Fed’s monetary policy this year.

Let us recall that at the last meeting, policymakers unanimously maintained the interest rate in the range of 3.50–3.75%, but their rhetoric became significantly more “hawkish”. Nine out of nineteen members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) suggest raising the interest rate this year against the sustained inflationary pressure caused by rising hydrocarbon prices and higher US trade tariffs. At the same time, the new head of the regulator, Kevin Warsh, appointed by President Donald Trump to soften monetary policy, stated that he considers the current level of interest rates restrictive only for the housing sector. In May, the consumer price index increased to a three-year peak of 4.2%, and the core indicator to 2.9%, significantly exceeding the target of 2.0%. This, combined with the steady state of the economy and a stable labor market, allows the US Fed to continue the fight against inflation using monetary methods. Currently, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool, the probability of an interest rate hike in September has reached 70.0%. Specialists from Bank of America Global Research suggest an increase in the indicator by 75 basis points by the end of the year, supporting the American dollar.

On the other hand, representatives of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) last month also announced the possibility of a sharp tightening of monetary conditions, maintaining the interest rate at 2.25% since the consumer price index in the first quarter also exceeded the target threshold of 2.0%, reaching 3.1% YoY, forcing policymakers to take the necessary measures. As the head of the regulator, Anna Breman recently stated, interest rates will probably rise earlier and more sharply than previously estimated. In the future, such decisions may slow down the decline of the NZD/USD pair, but they are unlikely to cause a change in the current downward trend.

Support and resistance

The trading instrument is approaching 0.5676 (Murrey [1/8]). Its breakdown allows it to decline to the area of 0.5554 (Murrey [–1/8]) and 0.5493 (Murrey [–2/8]). However, in case of consolidating above the middle line of Bollinger Bands 0.5859 (Murrey [4/8]), the development of positive dynamics with the targets at 0.5981 (Murrey [6/8]), 0.6103 (Murrey [8/8]) is likely.

Technical indicators maintain a sell signal: Bollinger Bands are turning downwards, the MACD histogram is increasing in the negative zone, and Stochastic has reached the oversold zone, not excluding a limited correction.

Resistance levels: 0.5859, 0.5981, 0.6103.

Support levels: 0.5676, 0.5554, 0.5493.

Trading tips

Short positions can be considered below 0.5676, with the targets at 0.5554, 0.5493, and stop loss 0.5740. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Long positions can be considered above 0.5859, with the targets at 0.5981, 0.6103 and stop loss 0.5780.

အခြေအနေ

အချိန်ကာလ	Weekly
အကြံပြုချက်များ	SELL STOP
ဝင်ရောက်ရန်နေရာ	0.5675
Take Profit	0.5554, 0.5493
Stop Loss	0.5740
ဝန်ဆောင်မှုအဆင့်များ	0.5493, 0.5554, 0.5676, 0.5859, 0.5981, 0.6103

အခြား အြခေအနေ

အကြံပြုချက်များ	BUY STOP
ဝင်ရောက်ရန်နေရာ	0.5860
Take Profit	0.5981, 0.6103
Stop Loss	0.5780
Stop Loss	0.5493, 0.5554, 0.5676, 0.5859, 0.5981, 0.6103