Key releases

၂၀၂၆၊ ဇွန် ၂၃ နေ့လယ် ၁၅:၄၃:၁၈

The United States of America

USD is moderately strengthening against EUR and GBP, while showing a mixed performance against JPY.

Investors’ focus remains on the prospects of monetary policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve. In this context, it is worth noting recent comments by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who expressed scepticism that the factors driving consumer price growth are transitory. He suggested that rising price pressures, particularly in the services sector, may not be driven by higher trade tariffs and the energy crisis, but instead reflect deeper structural factors. He also aligned with the view of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh on the importance of communication clarity, noting that guidance may be misinterpreted by traders, potentially undermining confidence in monetary policy decisions. In addition, market participants continue to monitor the de-escalation of the Middle East conflict. It should be recalled that the US and Iran agreed on a 60-day “roadmap”, while the US Department of the Treasury suspended sanctions on Iranian oil exports, signalling the White House’s intent to bring the regional crisis to an end as quickly as possible. However, President Donald Trump warned that hostilities could resume if Iranian authorities fail to fulfil their commitments.

Eurozone

EUR is weakening against its main competitors — JPY, GBP, and USD.

Today, preliminary June purchasing managers’ index data were released and broadly proved weak: in the manufacturing sector, the index declined from 51.6 points to 51.3 points, while in the services sector it increased from 47.7 points to 48.9 points, exceeding expectations of 48.6 points, but remaining in “stagnation” territory, whereas the composite index rose from 48.5 points to 49.5 points, confirming ongoing pressure on the European economy. Comparable data from Germany showed a downward revision from 48.1 points to 46.8 points and a move from 50.1 points to 50.0 points, versus forecasts of 49.0 points and 50.3 points, respectively. It is also worth noting recent comments by the Chief Economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), Philip Lane: he stated today that inflation in the euro area could remain above the 2.0% target, even if a peace agreement between the US and Iran is reached in the near term. These remarks reinforce the potential readiness of European policymakers to consider further increases in the cost of borrowing.

The United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against EUR, while weakening against JPY and USD.

Traders are focused on preliminary June purchasing managers’ index: in the manufacturing sector, the index declined from 53.9 points to 53.1 points, more significantly than expected at 53.5 points, while in the services sector it fell from 49.3 points to 48.7 points versus a forecast of 50.1 points, marking the sharpest decline since January 2023. The composite index eased from 49.7 points to 49.4 points, compared with preliminary estimates of 50.6 points. In addition, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Orders index was released today, extending its downward trajectory from –41.0 points to –45.0 points, reaching its lowest level since September 2020.

Japan

JPY is strengthening against EUR and GBP, while showing mixed dynamics against USD.

Today, preliminary June purchasing managers’ index data were released, supporting the quotes: in the manufacturing sector, the index improved from 54.5 points to 54.9 points, while in the services sector it increased from 50.0 points to 51.8 points. The composite index rose from 51.1 points to 52.5 points. Traders note that the improvement was driven by a recovery in new domestic orders, which recorded the strongest expansion in four years. In addition, the June Bank of Japan core consumer price index (CPI) eased from 2.8% to 2.7%, but remained well above the 2.0% target, allowing the policymakers to maintain a stance supportive of further monetary policy tightening.

Australia

AUD is weakening against its major competitors — EUR, Japanese yen, GBP, and USD.

Today’s preliminary June purchasing managers’ index data for the Australian economy were broadly positive: in the manufacturing sector, the index increased from 50.7 points to 51.2 points, while in the services sector it rose from 48.7 points to 49.9 points, confirming underlying economic resilience under current challenging conditions. Against this backdrop, tomorrow’s release of May inflation data may prove decisive for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): the weighted consumer price index is expected to edge up from 4.2% to 4.3%, potentially allowing policymakers to adopt a more “hawkish” tone and providing support to the Australian dollar.

Oil

Oil prices continue to extend their downward trajectory following a temporary suspension by the US Department of the Treasury of a significant portion of sanctions targeting Iran’s oil industry. In particular, the Islamic Republic is now permitted to trade “black gold” in US dollars, a practice not seen for more than 40 years. Market estimates suggest that this decision by the White House could allow Iran to bring an additional 67.0M barrels to the market, generating approximately 8.0-9.0B dollars in budget revenues. It is also worth noting that, according to US President Donald Trump, oil-related revenues will, among other things, be directed towards purchases of US agricultural products, rather than financing military reconstruction.

In addition, downward pressure on prices is being reinforced by an increase in vessel traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz: according to Bloomberg, the number reached 12 ships as of today. However, this figure remains significantly below pre-crisis levels, when the key maritime corridor saw an average of up to 135 per day.

အခြေအနေ