EUR/USD: the price remains in a sideways range, awaiting new movement drivers

၂၀၂၆၊ နို ၁၀ ၁၁:၂၁:၅၈

Current trend

At the beginning of last month, the EUR/USD pair entered the main sideways range of 1.1260–1.1108 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%, Murrey [3/8]), in which it is still trading, recently demonstrating mixed dynamics under the influence of monetary and geopolitical factors, and on Friday fell to the level of 1.1130 following the publication of strong US labor market data.

Recall that in October, unemployment fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, and nonfarm payrolls amounted to 165.0K, exceeding both the forecast of 65.0K and the September figure of 60.0K, while average hourly wages increased from 0.3% to 0.4%. Thus, the sector demonstrates stability, which, according to the dual mandate principle of the US Fed, allows policymakers to focus on fighting inflation, which is becoming the main problem of the economy. Commenting on this data, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) President Mary Daly and St. Louis FRB President Alberto Musalem stated the need to raise the interest rate soon, as a result of which expectations of monetary policy tightening at the December meeting, according to the FedWatch Tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), rose to 82.2%, which exerted temporary pressure on the asset.

Nevertheless, by now the price has restored lost positions since the American currency is declining again against signs of easing tension in the Persian Gulf region. Thus, yesterday, US President Donald Trump, in an interview with CNN, stated that the resumption of full-scale hostilities with Iran is extremely unlikely, at least while peace talks are ongoing. These comments, made against active diplomatic attempts to end the conflict with a peace deal, increased hopes for the cessation of disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supplies, the easing of the energy crisis and inflationary pressure, as a result of which market participants began to actively abandon the American dollar as a traditional safe-haven asset.

In addition, the euro receives local support against the publication of positive data on Germany’s foreign trade: export volume grew by 2.0%, significantly exceeding the projected growth of 0.5%, and import by 4.2% instead of the expected 0.5%. In general, the probability of the EUR/USD pair remaining in the sideways range of 1.1260–1.1108 while awaiting new significant movement drivers remains high.

Support and resistance

The trading instrument is approaching the upper line of the Bollinger Bands 1.1260 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%), consolidation above which will allow it to reach targets 1.1474 (Murrey [6/8]), 1.1596 (Murrey [7/8]) and 1.1718 (Murrey [8/8], upper border of the downward channel), however, in the event of a breakdown of the level 1.1108 (Murrey [3/8]), a decline is likely to the area of 1.0986 (Murrey [2/8]) and 1.0850 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%).

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands turn horizontally after a decline, the MACD histogram decreases in the negative zone, and Stochastic turns downwards.

Resistance levels: 1.1260, 1.1474, 1.1596, 1.1718.

Support levels: 1.1108, 1.0986, 1.0850.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from 1.1300 with the targets 1.1474, 1.1596, 1.1718 and stop loss 1.1220. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Short positions can be opened below the level 1.1108 with the targets 1.0986, 1.0850 and stop loss 1.1190.

အခြေအနေ

အချိန်ကာလ	Weekly
အကြံပြုချက်များ	BUY STOP
ဝင်ရောက်ရန်နေရာ	1.1300
Take Profit	1.1474, 1.1596, 1.1718
Stop Loss	1.1220
ဝန်ဆောင်မှုအဆင့်များ	1.0850, 1.0986, 1.1108, 1.1260, 1.1474, 1.1596, 1.1718

အခြား အြခေအနေ

အကြံပြုချက်များ	SELL STOP
ဝင်ရောက်ရန်နေရာ	1.1108
Take Profit	1.0986, 1.0850
Stop Loss	1.1190
Stop Loss	1.0850, 1.0986, 1.1108, 1.1260, 1.1474, 1.1596, 1.1718