Key releases

Jun 26, 2026, 3:28:57 PM

The United States of America

USD is weakening against EUR, GBP, and JPY.

The negative dynamics are developing under the influence of macroeconomic data: thus, the May personal consumption expenditures price index, which is being closely monitored by the US Fed, increased from 3.8% to 4.1% YoY, and the core indicator rose from 3.3% to 3.4%, significantly exceeding the target of 2.0%. The Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) reached 2.1%, significantly higher than the forecasts of 1.6%. The market data was mixed: initial jobless claims amounted to 215.0K, lower than both the forecasts of 225.0K and 227.0K previously. However, the four-week average claims rose from 223.50K to 224.25K, and the total claims increased from 1.800M to 1.821M. Thus, the current conditions allow policymakers to switch to “hawkish” rhetoric. As a reminder, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool, traders estimate the probability of an interest rate hike in September at 80.0%, and it may not be the only one before the end of the year. Meanwhile, John Williams, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of New York, suggested that inflation would return to the target no earlier than 2028. Austan Goolsbee, the head of the Chicago FRB, refused to suggest when the monetary policy tightening would begin, stating that speculations regarding further actions of the regulator should be avoided.

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening against JPY, GBP, and USD.

Today, the European Central Bank (ECB) published the results of the May consumer survey on inflation expectations. EU citizens anticipate the growth of the consumer price index to 3.5% in 12 months instead of 4.0% expected a month earlier. The three-year and five-year forecasts remained at 2.9% and 2.4%, respectively. The accompanying statement of the regulator notes that short-term calculations have stabilized, remaining significantly higher than the values observed before the start of the US-Iranian conflict.

United Kingdom

GBP is weakening against EUR but strengthening against JPY and USD.

On Tuesday at 08:00 (GMT+2), investors will pay attention to the publication of the Q1 gross domestic product (GDP). According to forecasts, the indicator will reach 0.6% QoQ and 1.1% YoY. In general, economic growth, according to preliminary estimates, will maintain stability amid high inflation, reaching 2.8% YoY in May. Against this background, the Bank of England may switch to tightening monetary policy. In addition, the market expects the appearance of the economic program of Andy Burnham, who may replace Keir Starmer as Prime Minister. Previously, the former mayor of Manchester actively advocated increasing public spending, but recently he abandoned his former views, declaring the importance of fiscal discipline.

Japan

JPY is strengthening against USD but weakening against EUR and GBP.

The June consumer price index in the Tokyo metropolitan area recorded some acceleration of inflation. The headline indicator rose from 1.4% to 1.7% YoY, and the core one increased from 1.3% to 1.6%. However, the values remain below the Bank of Japan target of 2.0% for the fifth consecutive month. At the same time, progress in peace negotiations between the US and Iran is expected to cause an easing of the energy crisis, slowing down price growth even more. Against this background, policymakers may refuse to raise the rate in the medium term, putting pressure on the national currency.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against EUR and JPY but demonstrates mixed dynamics against USD and GBP.

On Tuesday at 03:30 (GMT+2), the minutes of the latest meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will become available to experts, in which investors expect to find hints at further actions of the regulator in the field of monetary policy. As a reminder, in mid-June, policymakers maintained the interest rate at 4.35%, stating that the economy was slowing down amid tightening financial conditions, and warned that with further inflation growth, the interest rate could be raised once again.

Oil

Oil prices are declining under pressure amid expectations of a settlement of the US-Iranian conflict, although yesterday, prices corrected slightly upwards after a new attack by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), targeted the Singapore-Flagged container ship Evergreen, proceeding along a route uncoordinated with Iran. Nevertheless, the traffic of civilian vessels through the key maritime route is gradually increasing. According to the calculations of the CNBC channel, 125 ships passing through the strait were recorded on June 15–21, marking the highest weekly figure since the beginning of the conflict at the end of February.

In addition, the destabilization of OPEC has a negative impact on the asset. Following the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iraq announced the possibility of leaving the cartel if the country does not receive an increase in quotas for oil production.

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