Key releases

Aug 21, 2026, 4:21:36 PM

The United States of America

USD is weakening against EUR, GBP, and JPY.

The currency is under pressure from the Treasury Department’s plan to increase bond buybacks from 2.0B dollars to 4.0B dollars, with Department head Scott Bessent admitting a more significant figure. As a reminder, earlier in the week, amid growing concerns over a rapid increase in national debt and the likelihood of rising oil prices due to the suspension of US-Iranian peace talks, investors moved to dispose of debt securities, causing their yields to rise significantly, reaching a 19-year high of 5.337% for 30-year bonds. As a result of the measures taken, conditions in the 30.0T-dollar bond market eased significantly, supporting traders’ appetite for risk. In addition, despite a decrease in initial jobless claims for the week from 212.0K to 206.0K, below forecasts of 210.0K, the four-week average number of claims changed from 199.75K to 204.00K, and the total count from 1.781M to 1.799M, exceeding preliminary estimates of 1.790M. Thus, the labor market is showing signs of cooling, which reduces the likelihood of the US Fed tightening monetary policy: according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool, expectations of an interest rate hike in September are estimated at 34.0%, although for December the value exceeds 65.0%.

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening against USD and shows mixed dynamics against JPY and GBP.

Preliminary August business activity data for the Eurozone were published today. The services PMI remained at 51.7 points against forecasts of a decline to 51.5 points, while the manufacturing PMI increased from 51.9 points to 52.8 points versus 51.8 points, causing the composite PMI to rise from 52.0 points to 52.1 points instead of declining to 51.7 points. Nevertheless, in the bloc’s largest economy, Germany, the manufacturing PMI rose from 52.2 points straight to 54.1 points against an expected 52.1 points, but the services PMI fell from 49.8 points to 48.5 points, remaining in the stagnation zone. Thus, the composite PMI decreased from 51.3 points to 51.0 points. Overall, EU statistics are improving at the fastest pace since November due to rising exports and new orders, especially in manufacturing, but the slowdown in the German economy could hinder further recovery.

United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against USD and shows mixed dynamics against JPY and EUR.

The manufacturing PMI declined from 51.9 points to 51.5 points against forecasts of 51.6 points, but the services PMI rose from 52.1 points to 52.8 points instead of declining to 51.8 points, resulting in the composite PMI increasing from 52.2 points to 52.5 points against estimates of 51.6 points. Nevertheless, the improvement in British business sentiment was offset by weak August retail sales data, which slowed growth from 3.8% to 1.6%. Furthermore, in July, the government recorded a budget deficit: public sector net borrowing amounted to 1.8B pounds, as inflation-driven spending increases offset record income tax receipts.

Japan

JPY is strengthening against USD and shows mixed dynamics against EUR and GBP.

The services PMI rose from 51.2 points to 52.3 points, and the manufacturing PMI grew from 54.5 points to 55.1 points, with new orders reaching an eight-year peak as a result of increased demand for semiconductors driven by developments in artificial intelligence (AI) technology. In addition, in July, the consumer price index rose from 0.3% to 0.4% MoM and from 1.6% to 1.9% YoY, while the core CPI rose from 0.1% to 0.5% and from 1.6% to 1.8%, respectively. Thus, the national economy shows signs of sustainable growth, and inflation is approaching the Bank of Japan’s target of 2.0%, which corresponds to the main conditions for tightening monetary policy, with most experts expecting an interest rate hike of 25 basis points in September.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against EUR, GBP, JPY, and USD.

The manufacturing PMI remained at 52.0 points, but the services PMI fell from 53.6 points to 52.9 points, causing the composite PMI to decrease from 53.2 points to 52.5 points. Overall, domestic business activity is slowing, although companies generally feel fairly confident. Against incoming statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policymakers may move to maintain current monetary policy for an extended period, although experts still expect another rate hike before the end of the year.

Oil

Oil prices are attempting to grow.

Positive dynamics are developing against the cessation of US-Iranian peace negotiations. This week, US President Donald Trump confirmed on the Truth Social network that consultations with Iran are not being conducted and are not planned, and announced economic measures aimed at its collapse. Experts note that Iran has been under sanctions for many years, so the effectiveness of new restrictions is likely to be low. In addition, China has already stated that it will not change the terms of trade with the country. If the conflict continues, a resumption of direct hostilities in the Middle East is not ruled out, causing investor concerns over an intensified hydrocarbon deficit and a widening energy crisis. As a reminder, according to the marine traffic tracking service Kpler, the Strait of Hormuz remains virtually blocked, allowing fewer than ten cargo vessels through per day.

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