As per the most probable scenario, according to my estimate from the previous reviews, ethereum landed in the target range of 240-220. At this level, trading volumes have grown significantly and the price has entered a dense redistribution area. Some participants, driven to despair by the price decline of more than 40% from the highs, started massive sales, while cold-blooded buyers with deeper pockets and promising targets came out to meet them.
If we look at the big picture, we will see the following. The full realization of the Head and Shoulders pattern will occur around the level 170, but on the way this pattern has the most powerful long-term support in the form of the lower border of the upward channel around 200. I estimate the probability of this support level being broken as low. At least once we will fail to pass it it and will need to get very weighty confirmation of the current negative situation, so that a breakdown of the long-term trend would actually take place.
Analysis of Japanese candlesticks and their volume in the daily timeframe gives at least two tips. First, the volume in the course of the decline increases, which indicates a continuation of the trend, secondly, in the daily chart, we see the dominance of the red Marubozu over the weak green candle of the current day. From this, it can be assumed that the inertial movement is pushing the price further towards 200.
After a closer look at M15 chart, you can see that in the current momentum, the price is below 70% of the distribution from the total trade volume. This indicates that many participants made a mistake with the fair price and were out of business. Yes, they will want to return to fair, in their opinion, levels, but it will not be easy to do. In the current litefinance_com_devtal intraday trend, the resistance will be the range 235-240, and the support for the price will be around 225. In the current situation, we can note a decline in volumes before another surge.
Given the above analysis of Japanese candlesticks in the daily chart, I estimate the likelihood of a drop from the current range as 7 to 3. The next significant support area is in the range 210-200. The buyers will definitely try their hand from there and with a probability of 8 to 2 we will see a local price rebound. Whether this will be a turning point in the current decline or the market will be overwhelmed by the next wave of sales, we will find out in the next 3-4 days.
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