Everyone has already heard about the Bitcoin Cash fork planned for November, based on the idea of improving performance and changing the difficulty adjustment algorithm (DAA). For Bitcoin, this is not the first fork. Independent Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold already appeared on its basis. However, the consequences are incomparable with the upcoming event.
It is assumed that on November 18, the digital currency will undergo a branching of two chains - Segwit1x and Segwit2x, which have the same PoW instruction and the same difficulty model. For the crypto currency industry, the appearance of new forks can turn out in different ways. So, in the summer Bitcoin Cash formed a fork with DAA. The code was written in such a way that with the loss of most of the miners, the blocks will somehow be mined once in ten minutes, which you cannot say about either Segwit1x or Segwit2x. How will the events develop after the November fork?
If miners choose Segwit1x
Let us start with the unlikely option - the victory of Segwit1x and the fork obtaining the largest hashrate network. Theoretically, in this scenario, Segwit2x ceases to exist, but Bitcoin Cash remains. This will be true if the miners refuse the increased blocks of Segwit2x and prefer the standard 1Mb blocks from Segwit1x. However, everything indicates that the miners are interested in the 2MB volume offered by Segwit2x.
Segwit1x network will not be able to deal with the flow - and the time of creation of one block will increase to several months, which, of course, the miners will not like. But if we still take Segwit1x as the basis, it is logical to assume that Segwit2x will disappear from the crypto currency industry, since no one will agree to change the PoW algorithm or improve the difficulty adjustment algorithm. And these two conditions are necessary for the survival of Segwit2x.
Such a seemingly unrealistic scenario is still possible with the support of speculators with huge capitals. The scheme is simple: to increase the investment attractiveness of Segwit1x, the so-called "whales" are able to significantly raise the cost of the branch - and the miners will automatically switch to it, increasing the network by hashrate. However, the probability of the scenario is low due to its need for large capital. The whales are unwilling to spend and, most likely, will give their preference to Bitcoin Cash.
If miners choose Segwit2x
Events can turn so that the winner of the situation will be Segwit2x that will collect the largest network by hashrate. In this situation, to stay afloat, Segwit1x will have to change the PoW algorithm and turn into altcoin. But even an increase in value during the fork cannot be a salvation for Segwit1x, since the miners will prefer to mine Segwit2x and adhere to the NYA. At the same time Bitcoin Cash will continue to function.
The probability of this scenario is quite high against the backdrop of the support of most of the fork miners to Segwit2x as part of the NYA arrangement. For speculators with serious capital, this is not the best option, since they will not be able to receive superprofits of thousands of per cent in a couple of weeks. For them, the victory of Bitcoin Cash is preferable.
If miners choose Bitcoin Cash
The option of absolute victory of Bitcoin Cash – the crypto-currency with the maximum network by hashrate. Here Segwit1x can survive only by changing DAA or PoW, with immediate hard fork. In this case, 2Mb blocks from Segwit2x cease to function. This scenario is very likely due to the prospect of the miners to enrich by 1000% per month, if investing in Bitcoin Cash timely. However, the fact that the classic Bitcoin is still traded ten times higher than Bitcoin Cash, makes us doubt the probability of this development.
Let us imagine: at the time of the fork, Bitcoin Cash loses significantly in price, and traditional Bitcoin is still traded at record highs. Then the owners of large capitals furtively buy Bitcoin Cash for next to nothing and sell Bitcoin at a high cost. As a result, the prices for Bitcoin Cash are sharply rising, and Bitcoin is collapsing. At the same time, the investment attractiveness of Bitcoin Cash is increasing, attracting more and more miners. Meanwhile, both forks - Segwit1x and Segwit2x - are losing popularity, and the speed of mining of blocks is significantly reduced. As a result, Segwit2x ceases to exist, because it cannot change the PoW method of difficulty adjustment, taking into account the NYA agreement. Segwit1x continues to function as altcoin named Bitcoin, changing PoW, which is already supported by many members of the public due to the greater centralization of mining. Over time, this scenario will end with the disappearance of the classic Bitcoin and its replacement with Bitcoin Cash as a branch with the longest chain by total hashrate.
If miners go the other way
It is possible that the scenarios described above will not be realized - and both the Segwit1x and Segwit2x forks will function within the framework of the underlying idea, without the hard forks. However, this development of events is the least possible. Especially, in comparison with the above options.
What do we get as a result?
Predicting what will happen in case of DAA changes in Segwit1x or Segwit2x code is rather difficult. However, only such a decision in the long term will allow the forks to save their lives and deprive Bitcoin Cash of its advantages.
If Bitcoin Cash fails to collect the largest chain by total hashrate, the uncertainty of the situation will be prolonged. However, DAA will allow it to continue to function and eventually lure all miners. So, in the long term Bitcoin Cash will actually turn into Bitcoin.
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