EUR/USD
The European currency starts the week with a weak increase against the US dollar during the Asian session, retreating from the record lows of June 2020, updated at the end of last week. At the moment, only technical factors contribute to the growth of the euro, while the news background remains negative. Friday's data showed a sharp contraction of 0.7% in Germany's GDP in Q4 2021, after rising by 1.7% in the previous period. Analysts were counting on the emergence of negative dynamics, but forecasts suggested a decline of only 0.3%. In annual terms, the growth rate of the German economy slowed down from 2.8% to 1.4%. The Services Sentiment index of the eurozone in January also showed a decrease from 10.9 to 9.1 points, while forecasts suggested an increase to 14.9 points. The Industrial Confidence index over the same period corrected from 14.6 to 13.9 points, with a forecast of growth to 15 points. Today, investors are focused on the statistics on the dynamics of GDP in the euro area for Q4 2021. In addition, traders are waiting for the publication of data on consumer prices in Germany for January.
GBP/USD
The British pound shows the uptrend at trading against the US currency during the morning session, testing the level of 1.3400 for a breakout. The instrument wins back the losses recorded last week, as a result of which GBP/USD updated local lows from December 23. Technical factors remain the main "bullish" driver at the moment, while the macroeconomic background from the UK is changing slightly. In turn, data from the US released on Friday put additional pressure on the positions of the US currency. The volume of Personal Income in December slowed down from 0.5% to 0.3%, which turned out to be worse than the neutral forecasts of experts. Personal Spending for the same period decreased by 0.6% after rising by 0.4% a month earlier. Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in January fell from 68.8 to 67.2 points, which turned out to be worse than the average market forecasts of a decline to only 68.7 points.
NZD/USD
During the Asian session, NZD/USD is actively growing, testing 0.6560 for a breakout and retreating from record lows since September 2020, updated at the end of last week. Positive dynamics is facilitated by technical factors of correction of the oversold NZD, as well as disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the US, which appeared on Friday. In turn, the pressure on the instrument is exerted by uncertain data from China. NBS Manufacturing PMI in January decreased from 50.3 to 50.1 points, which was close to forecasts for a decline to 50.0 points. Non-Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.7 to 51.1 points. Caixin Manufacturing PMI for the same period fell from 50.9 to 49.1 points, while forecasts suggested a decline to only 50.4 points.
USD/JPY
The US dollar shows moderate growth against the Japanese yen in the Asian session, returning to an uptrend after an uncertain corrective decline last Friday. At the end of last week, the US currency was under pressure from technical factors and not the most optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the US. Today, investors are focused on a block of statistics from Japan, which failed to justify most of the forecasts. Industrial Production fell 1% in December after rising 7.0% in November. Analysts had expected a decline of 0.8%. In annual terms, Production slowed down from 5.1% to 2.7%, while forecasts suggested an increase to 9.7%. Retail Sales in December decreased by 1%, contrary to forecasts of growth by 1.1%. In annual terms, the indicator slowed down from 1.9% to 1.4%, which turned out to be noticeably worse than expected at the level of 2.7%.
XAU/USD
Gold prices are falling, remaining below the psychological level of 1800.00. At the end of last week, XAU/USD updated local lows from December 16, but it failed to consolidate on new local lows. It was facilitated by the appearance of weak macroeconomic statistics from the United States. In general, gold remains under pressure due to the prospects for an early increase in interest rates, which may be adjusted by the US Federal Reserve in March. During 2022, the rate can be increased from 4 to 7 times. Meetings of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB) are expected this week. Both regulators are unlikely to change monetary policy parameters, but officials' comments and updated forecasts will be very important.
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