The week of May 25–31, 2026, marks the end of the month and rounds off the first half of the year. Market participants will be focused on key macroeconomic releases from the US, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Canada, Germany, and China, as well as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy decision.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: Whit Monday in Catholic countries and Memorial Day in the US; no major releases scheduled.
- Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence Index.
- Wednesday: Australian CPI figures, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision.
- Thursday: New Zealand's budget release, US PCE and GDP data, and Japan's Tokyo CPI data.
- Friday: Germany's CPI and Canada's GDP data.
- Sunday: China's PMI figures.
- Key event of the week: the US PCE Price Index.
Monday, May 25
Catholics around the world will celebrate Whit Monday, while the United States will observe Memorial Day. Due to the holidays, banks and stock exchanges in the US and several European countries will be closed, keeping trading activity subdued. No major macroeconomic data releases are scheduled.
Tuesday, May 26
14:00 – USD: US Consumer Confidence Index
The Conference Board's survey of nearly 3,000 US households evaluates current and future economic conditions and overall economic sentiment. Consumer confidence in the country's economic development and stability is a key indicator of consumer spending and, consequently, economic performance. High confidence levels suggest economic growth, while low levels indicate stagnation.
Previous indicator values: 92.8, 91.8, 91.2, 84.5, 89.1, 88.7, 94.6, 94.2, 97.4, 97.2, 93.0, 98.0, 86.0, 92.9, 98.3, 104.1 in January 2025, 104.7 in December 2024, 111.7, 108.7, 98.7, 103.3, 100.3, 100.4, 102.0, 97.0, 104.7, 106.7, 114.8, 110.7, 102.0, 102.6, 103.0, 106.1, 117.0, 109.7, 102.3, 101.3, 104.2.
An increase in the indicator values will bolster the US dollar exchange rate, while a decrease will weaken it.
Wednesday, May 27
00:00 – JPY: Speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda
In his upcoming speech, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to comment on the bank's monetary policy. Markets typically react strongly when the Bank of Japan governor addresses this topic, especially if he makes unexpected remarks, leading to increased volatility in yen trading as well as in Asian and global financial markets. Conversely, if he does not mention monetary policy, the market reaction will likely be subdued.
Market participants will also pay attention to issues related to the Bank of Japan's recent foreign exchange interventions.
01:30 – AUD: Australian Consumer Price Index. Australia Trimmed Mean Inflation Rate
The Consumer Price Inflation Index, published by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, gauges retail prices of goods and services in Australia. The CPI is the most significant indicator of inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A high indicator reading is positive for the Australian dollar, while a low reading is negative.
Previous values YoY: +4.6% in March, +3.7% in February, +3.8% in January 2026 and December 2025, +3.4% in November, +3.8% in October, +3.6% in September, +3.2% in August, +3.0% in July, +1.9% in June, +2.1% in May, +2.4% in April, March, and February, +2.5% in January 2025, +2.5% in December 2024, +2.3% in November, +2.1% in October and September, +2.7% in August 2024.
The Australian central bank's CPI inflation target ranges between 2% and 3%. According to the minutes of the recent RBA Board meeting, inflation risks have shifted to the upside. Some market participants are already pricing in a roughly 50-basis-point rate increase to 4.10% in 2026, which supports the Australian dollar in the medium term.
The expected positive CPI reading will likely strengthen the Australian dollar. If the indicator readings are worse than the forecast or the previous value, the Australian dollar will face short-term negative effects.
The trimmed mean measure of core inflation in Australia reflects the retail price of goods and services included in the consumer basket. The trimmed mean takes into account the weighted average of the middle 70% of index components.
Previous YoY values: +3.3% in March, February, and January 2026, +3.3% in December 2025, +3.2%, +3.3%, +3.2%, +3.0%, +3.0%, +2.8%, +3.0%, +3.1% in April 2025.
The data suggest that inflationary pressures remain robust. If the indicator reading turns out to be worse than expected, the Australian dollar will likely weaken. Conversely, if the indicator value exceeds the forecast, it may positively impact the currency in the short term.
02:00 – NZD: Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Interest Rate Decision. RBNZ Monetary Policy Review
Previously, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) indicated that the economy no longer required the same level of monetary stimulus. Afterward, the bank decided to ease monetary policy in August 2024, reducing the official cash rate by 0.25% to 5.25%. Prior to this change, the RBNZ maintained a pause for eight consecutive meetings. In October and November, the rate was cut again by 0.50% each time. In 2025, the RBNZ continued its policy-easing cycle, reducing the interest rate to its current level of 2.25%.
The New Zealand currency faced significant pressure after the RBNZ opted to cut the interest rate. The accompanying statement revealed that the decision was made given expectations of a further drop in inflation, which is gradually returning to the target range of 1.0%–3.0%. Inflation expectations have also decreased.
However, the situation in the world, and New Zealand's economy in particular, has changed dramatically due to the war in the Middle East. The surge in oil and gas prices in countries critically dependent on energy imports has accelerated inflation. Therefore, at the upcoming meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may decide to raise interest rates. However, the bank may also take a pause and maintain the current monetary policy parameters.
Market participants monitoring the New Zealand dollar's performance should be prepared for a notable uptick in volatility during this time.
In the Monetary Policy Review and commentary, the RBNZ officials will explain the interest rate decision and the economic factors that influenced it.
03:00 – NZD: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Press Conference
RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr will comment on the rate decision. Typically, volatility in the New Zealand dollar increases during the meeting. Orr's speeches often serve as an unofficial source of information about the future direction of the RBNZ's monetary policy. He believes that the country's monetary policy should be aligned with the country's employment performance and financial stability, as well as inflation.
Thursday, May 28
02:00 – NZD: New Zealand Budget Release
The New Zealand Budget Release is a key financial report outlining the government's revenue and spending plans for the upcoming fiscal year. It covers the budgets of ministries, government agencies, and social programs, providing insight into the country’s economic priorities.
Published by the New Zealand Treasury, the report can significantly influence financial markets. Higher government spending, especially on infrastructure and social programs, may support economic growth and strengthen investor confidence, which can positively affect the New Zealand dollar. For traders and analysts, the budget release is an important indicator of fiscal stability and potential monetary policy changes.
12:30 – USD: US GDP Annual Growth Rate for Q1 (Second Estimate). Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE Price Index)
The GDP data is one of the key indicators, along with labor market and inflation data, for the US Fed in terms of its monetary policy. A positive indicator reading strengthens the US dollar, while a weak GDP report weighs on it. In Q4 2025, GDP posted +0.5% after +4.4% in Q3, +3.8% in Q2, -0.6% in Q1, +1.9% in Q4 2024, +3.3% in Q3, +3.6% in Q2, +0.8% in Q1 2024, +3.4% in Q4 2023.
If the data indicate a decline in GDP in Q1 2026, the US dollar will face significant pressure. Conversely, positive GDP figures will bolster the greenback and US stock indices.
The preliminary estimate stood at +2.0%.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data reflect the average amount of money consumers spend per month on durable goods, consumer goods, and services. The core PCE price index excludes food and energy prices. The annual core PCE is the main inflation gauge used by the US Fed as the primary inflation indicator.
The inflation rate, along with the labor market and GDP data, is crucial for the Fed in determining its monetary policy. Growing prices exert pressure on the central bank to tighten its policy and raise interest rates.
The PCE data above the forecasted and/or previous values may boost the US dollar, while a decline in the reading will likely exert a negative impact on the greenback.
Previous values YoY: +3.2% in March, +3.0%, +3.1% in January 2026, +3.0% in December 2025, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.6%, +2.7%, +3.0%, +2.8% in January 2025.
23:30 – JPY: Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI). Tokyo Core CPI excluding Food and Energy
Tokyo's consumer price index, published by the Statistics Bureau of Japan, measures the change in the prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. Since Tokyo is the most densely populated region in Japan, this index is considered a key indicator for assessing inflation and consumer preferences.
Previous values YoY:
- Tokyo CPI: +1.5%, +1.4%, +1.6%, +1.5%, +2.0%, +2.7%, +2.8%, +2.5%, +2.6%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.4%, +3.5%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +3.4% ,+3.1%, +2.6%, +1.8%, +2.1%, +2.6%, 2.2%, +2.3%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +1.8%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +3.3%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.5%, +3.3%, + 3.4%, +4.4% in January 2023;
- Tokyo CPI excluding food and energy: +1.9%, +1.7%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.3%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.5%, +3.0%, +3.1%, +3.1%, +2.1%, +2.0%, +1.1%, +2.2%, +2.5%, +2.4%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +1.6%, +1.6%, +1.5%, +1.8%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.3%, +3.5%, +3.6%, +3.8%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +3.8%, +3.9%, +3.8%, +3.4%, +3.1%, +3.0% in January 2023.
The indicator reading lower than forecasted and/or previous values may weaken the yen, while a rise in the indicator may strengthen the currency.
Friday, May 29
12:00 – EUR: German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Final Estimate)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the European Statistics Office and is calculated using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is used by the European Central Bank to assess price stability. A positive index result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.
Previous values YoY: +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.0%, +2.1% in January 2026, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.1%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.1%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2025, +2.6%, +2.8% in December 2024, +2.4%, +2.4%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +2.8%, +2.4%, +2.3%, +2.7%, +3.1% in January 2024, +3.8% in December, +2.3% in November, +3.0% in October, +4.3% in September, +6.4% in August, +6.5% in July, +6.8% in June, +6.3% in May, +7.6% in April, +7.8% in March, +9.3% in February, +9.2% in January, +9.6% in December, +11.3% in November, +11.6% in October, +10.9% in September, +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022.
The data indicate that inflation remains high and even accelerates periodically, which, in turn, is forcing the ECB to tighten its monetary policy, especially given the risks of recession in the Eurozone.
If the index value turns out to be lower than the previous one, the euro may weaken. Conversely, if inflation resumes rising, the euro may strengthen. An increase in the index is a positive factor for the euro.
If the May reading proves higher than the previous one, the euro may appreciate in the short term.
12:30 – CAD: Canadian GDP. Canada's Annual GDP Growth
The release of Canada's GDP report by Statistics Canada. A positive report bolsters the Canadian dollar, while a weak GDP report negatively affects the currency.
Canada's quarterly GDP report reflects the total volume of all goods and services produced by Canada during the quarter (YoY) and is considered an indicator of the overall Canadian economy. GDP posted -0.2% (-0.6% YoY) in Q4 2025 after +0.6% (+2.4% YoY) in Q3 2025, -0.5% (-1.8% YoY) in Q2 2025, +0.5% (-2.0% YoY) in Q1 2025, +0.6% (+2.1% YoY) in Q4 2024.
If the Q1 2026 data is better than the previous and/or forecasted value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen.
Sunday, May 31
01:30 – CNY: China's Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)
This indicator is an essential gauge of the overall Chinese economy. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the yuan, while a value below 50 is negative for the currency.
Previous values: 50.3, 50.4, 49.0, 49.3 in January 2026, 50.1 in December 2025, 49.2, 49.0, 49.8, 49.4, 49.7, 49.5, 50.5, 50.2, 49.1 in January 2025, 50.1 (December 2024), 50.3, 50.1, 49.8, 49.1, 49.4, 49.5, 50.4, 50.8, 49.2, 49.0, 49.5, 50.2, 49.3, 49.0, 48.8, 49.2, 51.9, 52.6, 50.1 in January. The relative rise in the index above 50 strengthens the yuan. Data above 50 indicates increased economic activity, positively affecting the national currency. Conversely, if the index value is below 50, the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.
Likewise, the non-manufacturing PMI assesses business conditions in China’s services and construction sectors. An indicator result above 50 is seen as positive for the yuan. Previous values: 49.4, 50.1, 49.5, 49.4 in January 2026, 50.2 in December 2025, 49.5, 50.1, 50.0, 50.3, 50.5, 50.3, 50.8, 50.4, 50.2 in January 2025, 52.2 in December 2024, 50.0, 50.2, 50.0, 50.3, 50.2, 50.5, 51.2, 53.0, 50.7, 50.4, 50.6, 51.7, 51.5, 53.2, 54.5, 56.4, 58.2, 56.3, 54.4 in January. The indicator is still above the 50 value, likely influencing the yuan positively. Conversely, the indicator below 50 suggests that the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.
Price chart of USDX in real time mode
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